TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/election/88elect/88elect.007

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                                                                                August 22, 1988

THE REPUBLICANS

The Torch Is Passed


How the shadow of Reagan's smile, and his legacy laced with
illusions, may haunt Bush


     Twenty years ago, as part of a revolt against an era of Big
Government, the name of Ronald Reagan was first put in nomination
at a Republican Convention. Richard Nixon won top billing that
year, but it was the favorite-son Governor of California who
would prove to be the party's most enduring inspiration. First in
graceful defeat, then in glorious triumph, and finally as a
reassuring symbol of the presidency itself, Reagan became the
conservative constant through two decades of Republican
resurgence. This Monday in New Orleans, the era's most successful
Republican politician will take the podium to thunderous applause
and, as part of his final bow, urge Americans to continue his
legacy by supporting George Herbert Walker Bush, the dutiful
deputy who has been tapped as his heir.

     There is an inherent uneasiness in all dynastic succession.
Bush embraced the true conservative faith late in life, and
purists still question his ideological pedigree. He fully
understands that he must woo the national electorate as a man of
the future rather than the past, which is why he declared in one
major speech, "I do not hate government."

     But for all the talk about Bush's asserting his political
independence, the Vice President cannot hope to defeat Michael
Dukakis without standing on the shoulders of the President. Bush
appears, on present form at least, overmatched as a candidate,
offering the voters little more than a resume without a
rationale. Yet as the crown prince, the authorized inheritor of
the Reaganite mantle, Bush may still be able to rally the
faithful behind the implicit message of "Four More Years."

     In its narrowest terms, the Reagan record allows Bush to run
as the candidate of peace and prosperity. Whether it is Soviet
troops withdrawing in disarray from Afghanistan or a leader in
the Kremlin who wants, in Reaganite fashion, to get the
commissars off the backs of productive enterprise, the world
appears to be fulfilling the President's boldest dreams. At home,
most Americans have enjoyed the longest peacetime economic
expansion in modern history. The "misery index" -- that
combination of inflation and unemployment rates that the
Democrats invoked to bedevil Gerald Ford in 1976 -- now stands at
less than 10, roughly half what it was when Jimmy Carter left
office. Reagan has also fulfilled his antigovernment pledge to
drastically slash income-tax rates.

     That might be enough if the Constitution allowed the
President to run, for a third term, instead of Bush. But the very
orchestration of the New Orleans convention, with Reagan leading
off and the Vice President batting cleanup, emphasizes the
philosophic legacy that Bush will formally accept Thursday night.
The Republican nominee is inescapably cast in the role of the
grateful inheritor. But what precisely is Reagan's bequest?

     Even though the Administration has been exhausted --
intellectually and politically -- for nearly two years, Reagan
has been able, in the words of his former domestic-policy planner,
Martin Anderson, to sculpt "America's policy agenda well into the
21st century." At the very least, he has defined the political
debate. Opinion polls show some vague unease about the economy's
future, along with renewed interest in federal solutions for a
variety of domestic ills. Still, Reagan's preachments about the
evils of Big Government and high progressive tax rates continue
to dominate the political landscape. Even his failures, the most
monumental being the nation's mounting debt, have served to
constrain the discussion. Recalling Reagan's record as Governor
of California in a lead editorial recently, the Los Angeles Times
noted that "in subtle ways, Reagan made it acceptable to resent
assistance to poor people. No longer was there emphasis on the
citizens fulfilling their collective responsibility to society
through the vehicle of government."

     The Reagan persona, as well as his policies, is an important
aspect of his legacy, changing the way Americans view leadership.
He bestrides this election as an almost metaphysical force in the
nation's political consciousness. Just as Jimmy Carter gave a bad
name to intellect and hands-on attention to detail, Reagan has
helped exalt the importance of a clear philosophical vision, even
if the clarity is partly the result of his refusal to face
unpleasant facts. Though cruelly diminished by scandal, Reagan is
still widely perceived as the model of a strong President. In
fact, for many voters under 30, he has become almost synonymous
with the job itself; since World ar II, only Dwight Eisenhower,
that other benign patriarch, served as long a tenure in the White
House. It is no mystery why a conventional politician like Bush
seems so wan in comparison and why an unfettered challenger like
Dukakis remains so cautious in attacking the incumbent. Reagan
has molded public attitudes too much in his own cheerful,
nostalgic image to permit otherwise.

     Reagan's ability to overfly troubles of his own making on a
magic carpet woven of his own illusions remains a wonderment. He
has helped banish bad news from the political lexicon. "There are
no bitter pills among Ronald Reagan's jelly beans," explains a
durable adviser. But eight years of smile-button politics leave a
heavy burden for those who would follow, Democrat or Republican.
No matter how intractable the problems, the American people have
come to expect can-do homilies from their President. Any honest
talk about sacrifice or yielding self-interest to the common
interest is as politically dubious as repeating Jimmy Carter's
malaise speech. During the primaries, candidates of both parties
who tried cold candor encountered glacial resistance. Reagan has
redefined the presidency into a cheerful con game that works best
when the man in the Oval Office believes his own upbeat patter.

     He created the Free Lunch illusion, a permissive fantasy in
which America could indulge: less taxes, more defense spending,
unlimited imported gewgaws and privatization of the obligations
of community. Even as the nation's economy retreated in the face
of the Japanese challenge, Reaganite gospel clung to the illusion
that the cavalry would ride to the rescue in the last reel in the
form of painless economic growth. "Maybe," muses a former White
House adviser, "it is impossible in our time for a President to
be both inspirational and candid with the people."

     That Reagan failed even to try is perhaps the most tragic
part of the legacy. By the beginning of his second term, Reagan
had enough credibility to use his inspirational skill to talk
straight to the American people. He could at least have attempted
to confront the inequities and flaws of Reaganomics by investing
some of his capital as the Great Communicator. But he passed up
the chance, making it even harder for any successor to bear bad
tidings.

     As Bush struggles mightily this week to create an inspiring
vision of Reaganism as he would adapt it for the 1990s, he will
have to confront the limits of living on borrowed ideology. The
militant conservatism that helped propel Reagan to power in 1980
was a philosophy born of frustration. Even when Nixon and Ford
held the White House, conservatives felt disenfranchised. That is
why it was so easy for Reagan to articulate their resentments
over high taxes and meddlesome federal bureaucrats. But because
of the very success of Reaganism, Republicans can no longer stoke
themselves up with anti-Establishment resentment.

     That helps explain why Bush, rather than a right-wing
populist of the original Reagan mold, will be making the
acceptance speech on Thursday. by breeding and association, he is
part of the Establishment that Reagan challenged in 1976 and
defeated in 1980. But enough of Reagan's original agenda has been
adopted to slake the most urgent thirsts of the right wing. The
income-tax monster has been shrunk, the Democratic Congress is
leery of huge new programs, the Viet Nam syndrome no longer
paralyzes American foreign policy, and the federal judiciary has
been Reaganized. "In this environment," says Burton Pines of the
Heritage Foundation, "it's harder than it was eight, ten years
ago to find conservatives with real fire in their bellies."

     One measure of Reaganism's continued impact can be seen in
Bush's evolution. A practical man who can read a balance sheet,
Bush knew in 1980 that supply-side math could not add up for very
long. He had the guts, as Reagan's rival for the nomination, to
name it "voodoo economics." Today, like Dukakis, Bush knows there
is a long list of public needs that cannot be met without some
difficult choices, including a revenue increase (none dare call
it taxes). But in the Balkanized G.O.P. of 1988, Bush had to get
a large share of Reagan loyalists to win the nomination. And he
had to reassure other voters still mesmerized by the Free Lunch
illusion that he would not be presenting a large bill for the
meal. Hence his early and oft-made pledge: "I am not going to
raise your taxes -- period."

     This aspect of Reagan's shadow would constrain options
significantly, no matter who the next President is. Should a
recession occur during the period of crushing national debt,
there would be little room for maneuver. That is why commentators
as diverse as Republican Analyst Kevin Phillips and Democratic
Senator William Proxmire have suggested that November's
victorious party may turn out to be history's loser. That would
be the final irony of Reagan's legacy: a Bush presidency
destroyed by the very ideology that allowed him to fill in the
final line of his resume.

-- By Laurence I. Barrett/Washington.